I don't think many
people will have trouble contemplating the pros of an early
retirement. The upsides of cutting out of work early are the basis
for much of our daydreaming, the pleasant reveries that get us
through difficult days. What's not to like?
After decades of work, you get to unshackle yourself from your
9-to-5 (or, as is often the case these days, 8-to-6) ball-and-chain
of a job and get a chance to do all the things you'd like to do.
Hiking the Himalayan foothills, taking a cruise through the
Norwegian fjords, fly fishing in
Montana or
Vermont, donating time to your favorite
charity.
The cons of early
retirement
Alas, harsh reality
often intrudes on this pleasant idyll.
First, there are
lifestyle and emotional issues. Some people are just so focused on
breaking away from their jobs that they don't think through how
they'll actually spend their time. As a result, after an initial
period of euphoria, one can begin to feel listless and disengaged.
Similarly, some
people look forward to revisiting an interest or activity they'd
dropped earlier in life -- painting, taking up a musical instrument,
perhaps -- only to find that they don't have enough skill in that
area to make the activity fulfilling to them.
Then
there are the financial issues. Retiring early means you'll need to
generate an income large enough to support you for 20, 30 even 40 or
more years. That's a daunting without that regular paycheck (not to
mention raises) coming in.
Sure, starting at
age 62, you'll be able to tap Social Security, but you'll receive a
reduced benefit. Which means you're going to have to rely on other
pensions, if you're among the decreasing number of people who get
traditional corporate pensions these days, and whatever retirement
savings you've managed to accumulate in 401(k)s,
IRAs and other retirement accounts.
That task -- turning
your savings into a reliable income that will support you for a long
retirement -- is a challenge for all retirees, but it's especially
daunting for early retirees because they'll be making withdrawals
from their savings for a longer period.
Not
surprisingly, that increases the chance that they may run out of
money before they run out of time. And we haven't even gotten into
the health insurance expenses you may have to incur if you retire
before age 65 when Medicare kicks in.
How do you know if
you're ready?
Which brings us to the second part of your question. How do you
evaluate whether you're financially prepared to call it a career?
There's only one
way: go over the numbers.
Unless you're pretty
certain you've got a medical condition or set of genes that dictates
you're going to check out early, I'd say you should plan on being
around until at least 90 and preferably to 95. In fact, it doesn't
hurt to plan on living to 100.
Remember, you would
rather overestimate your life span than underestimate it. The last
thing you want to do is live to 90 but run out of assets at 85. So
for people retiring at, say, 55, that means planning on a good 40
years or so in retirement.
Look
at the numbers
You need a pretty big nest egg to support you over that length of
retirement. Let's say, for example, you require a retirement income
in today's dollars of $45,000 a year. And let's assume you can count
on $15,000 from Social Security.
Assuming you won't
also be getting monthly checks from a company pension, that means
your retirement portfolio will have to throw off $30,000 a year in
real dollars (in other words, your income would increase by the
inflation rate each year so you maintain steady purchasing power.)
To support
inflation-adjusted withdrawals over a period of 30 to 40 years, I
would say that, as a rule of thumb, you need a portfolio roughly 25
times the amount you withdraw that first year of retirement.
So, in other words,
if you needed $35,000 of inflation-adjusted income from your
investments, you would need a portfolio of about $875,000. Actually,
you'd need more since the earliest you could collect Social Security
benefits would be 62. (That's not to say you should start collecting
at 62. For more on the pros and cons of taking Social
Security early vs. holding off for a larger benefit later on.
You might be able to
get by with a smaller nest egg, but that would increase the chance
that your portfolio might run dry while you're still alive.